China’s new factory data shows a bright start to the year

Reuters

Published 2:12 AM EDT, Mon April 1, 2024

An employee working at an energy-saving materials firm in Zibo, eastern China

(Beijing) — China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday.

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 in March from 50.9 the previous month, above analysts’ forecasts of 51.0 and marking an expansion for the fifth consecutive month. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.

The upbeat results followed recent better-than-expected export and retail sales data, suggesting a bright start to the year for the world’s second-biggest economy.

Official factory data published on Sunday also entered positive territory, offering relief to policymakers even as a crisis in the property sector remains a drag on the economy and confidence. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in February, expanding for the first time in six months.

Citi last week raised its forecast for China’s 2024 growth to 5.0% from 4.6%, citing “recent positive data and policy delivery.”

China announced an ambitious 2024 economic growth target of around 5% at the annual meeting of China’s parliament in March.

But analysts say policymakers will need to roll out more stimulus to hit that target as they will not be able to count on the weak statistical base of 2022 which flattered 2023 growth data.

Expansion in manufacturers’ output and new orders accelerated last month, the PMI survey showed. External demand also picked up, pushing the gauge for new export orders to its highest level since February 2023.

Businesses’ confidence towards the year-ahead rose to its highest point since April 2023 on good news such as a reduction in input costs.

“A drop in raw material prices reduced production costs for manufacturers, providing leeway for them to lower prices amid fierce market competition,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.

However, companies were cautious about adding employees, and the relevant sub-index has remained negative since August last year.

“The economy still faces headwinds with prevalent uncertainties and unfavorable factors,” said Wang.

“Downward economic pressures persist, employment remains subdued, prices remain low, and insufficient effective demand has not been fundamentally resolved, underscoring the need to further boost domestic and external demand.”

China’s new factory data shows a bright start to the year

中国的新工厂数据显示了今年非常好的开端

China’s manufacturing activity expanded at the fastest pace in 13 months in March, with business confidence hitting an 11-month high, driven by growing new orders from customers at home and abroad, a private survey showed on Monday.

周一的一项私人调查显示，受国内外客户新订单不断增长的推动，3月份中国制造业活动以13个月来最快的速度扩张，商业信心创下11个月以来的最高。

The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing PMI rose to 51.1 in March from 50.9 the previous month, above analysts’ forecasts of 51.0 and marking an expansion for the fifth consecutive month. The 50-point mark separates growth from contraction.

三月份，财新/标普全球制造业PMI从上月的50.9升至51.1，高于分析师预测的51.0，标志着连续第五个月增长。50点是增长与收缩的分界点。

The upbeat results followed recent better-than-expected export and retail sales data, suggesting a bright start to the year for the world’s second-biggest economy.

这一上涨延续了最近好于预期的出口和零售数据，表明这一世界第二大经济体今年有着一个非常好的开端。

Official factory data published on Sunday also entered positive territory, offering relief to policymakers even as a crisis in the property sector remains a drag on the economy and confidence. The official purchasing managers’ index (PMI) rose to 50.8 in March from 49.1 in February, expanding for the first time in six months.

周日公布的官方工厂数据也很正向，这让政策制定者松了一口气，尽管房地产行业的危机仍然拖累了经济和信心。官方采购经理人指数从2月份的49.1升至3月份的50.8，六个月来首次增长。

Citi last week raised its forecast for China’s 2024 growth to 5.0% from 4.6%, citing “recent positive data and policy delivery.”

花旗银行上周将其对中国2024年经济增长的预测从4.6%上调至5.0%，理由是“最近的积极数据和政策传递”。

China announced an ambitious 2024 economic growth target of around 5% at the annual meeting of China’s parliament in March.

在3月份的中国议会年会上，中国宣布了2024年5%左右的经济增长目标。

But analysts say policymakers will need to roll out more stimulus to hit that target as they will not be able to count on the weak statistical base of 2022 which flattered 2023 growth data.

但分析人士表示，政策制定者将需要推出更多的刺激措施来实现这一目标，因为2023年的增长数据是被2022年疲软的统计基础夸大了，他们不能指望这样。

Expansion in manufacturers’ output and new orders accelerated last month, the PMI survey showed. External demand also picked up, pushing the gauge for new export orders to its highest level since February 2023.

PMI调查显示，上个月制造商产量和新订单的扩张加速。外部需求也有所回升，将新出口订单的指标推至2023年2月以来的最高水平。

Businesses’ confidence towards the year-ahead rose to its highest point since April 2023 on good news such as a reduction in input costs.

由于投入成本降低等好消息，企业对未来一年的信心升至2023年4月以来的最高点。

“A drop in raw material prices reduced production costs for manufacturers, providing leeway for them to lower prices amid fierce market competition,” said Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group.

“原材料价格的下跌降低了制造商的生产成本，这让他们在激烈的市场竞争中有空间去降低价格”，财新洞察集团高级经济学家Wang Zhe说道。

However, companies were cautious about adding employees, and the relevant sub-index has remained negative since August last year.

然而，公司对增加员工数持谨慎态度，而且相关类别指数自去年8月以来一直为负。

“The economy still faces headwinds with prevalent uncertainties and unfavorable factors,” said Wang.

“经济仍面临不确定因素和不利因素的影响”，Wang说道。

“Downward economic pressures persist, employment remains subdued, prices remain low, and insufficient effective demand has not been fundamentally resolved, underscoring the need to further boost domestic and external demand.”

“下行的经济压力持续存在，就业仍然低迷，价格仍然较低，有效需求不足的问题没有得到根本解决，这突出表明需要进一步提升国内外需求”。