英文外刊阅读：Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?

Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?

By Elisabeth Buchwald, CNN

Published 6:00 AM EST, Fri February 16, 2024

Consumer spending is one of the main drivers of economic growth in the US.

New YorkCNN —

And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions.

On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession.

Could the US, the world’s largest economy, be next? Far from it.

Japan’s economic contraction is connected to its shrinking population, wrote Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note Thursday. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. That limits the country’s ability to grow because it means “fewer people make and consume fewer things,” Donovan said.

In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy.

Japan's economy contracted at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the last three months of 2023

The state of the US economy

The polar opposite occurred in the US. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

But Thursday’s US retail sales data for the month of January came in much lower than expected, suggesting Americans could be fastening their belts a little more tightly after a record holiday season.

Still, the labor market remains remarkably strong, as evidenced by the nation’s unemployment rate, which has stayed below 4% for 24 straight months.

Will there be a US recession in 2024?

The US economy could be in a recession right now without Americans knowing it.

That’s because the economy isn’t broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so.

That group, known as the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, judges the onset of a recession retroactively based upon “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

There’s no fixed rule about what that involves, but it could include factors like a spike in the unemployment rate, falling income, a major drop in spending or a negative economic growth rate.

But, importantly, two consecutive negative quarters of GDP don’t always qualify as a recession. The US experienced that in 2022, and the NBER committee didn’t announce a recession.

That said, the risk of a recession has been elevated since the US Federal Reserve began its tightening cycle in March 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in December. However, he said, “there’s little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.”

But even when the economy seems as though it’s never been better, there’s always the possibility of a recession in the next year, Powell added.

That’s because unforeseen economic shocks — like, say, a global pandemic — can arise at any point.

Japan and the UK are in recessions. Is the US next?

日本和英国正处于衰退之中，下一个是美国吗？

And just like that, two of the world’s largest economies are in technical recessions.

就那样，世界上最大的两个经济体正处于技术衰退之中。

On Thursday, Japan and the UK both reported their second consecutive negative quarters of gross domestic product, fitting the widely agreed-upon definition of a recession.

周四，日本和英国都公布了连续第二个季度的国内生产总值为负，符合普遍认同的衰退定义。

Could the US, the world’s largest economy, be next? Far from it.

下一个会是世界上最大的经济体美国吗？远非如此。

Japan’s economic contraction is connected to its shrinking population, wrote Paul Donovan, chief economist at UBS Global Wealth Management, in a note Thursday. In 2022, the nation’s population declined by 800,000, marking the 14th consecutive year of contraction. That limits the country’s ability to grow because it means “fewer people make and consume fewer things,” Donovan said.

UBS全球财富管理首席经济学家Paul Donovan在周四的一份报告中写道，日本经济衰退与人口减少有关。2022年，日本人口减少了800,000，这是日本人口连续第14年减少。这限制了日本的增长能力，因为这意味着“制造和消费东西的人越来越少”，Donovan说道。

In the UK, however, population and wage growth weren’t sufficient to stave off a drop in consumer spending, one of the main drivers of that economy.

但是，在英国，人口和工资的增长不足以阻止消费支出的下降，消费支出是经济的主要驱动力之一。

The state of the US economy

美国经济状况

The polar opposite occurred in the US. In the past two quarters, the nation’s economy experienced much higher than expected GDP growth, due in large part to robust consumer spending.

美国却截然相反，在过去两个季度，美国经济的GDP增长远高于预期，这在很大程度上是由于强劲的消费支出。

But Thursday’s US retail sales data for the month of January came in much lower than expected, suggesting Americans could be fastening their belts a little more tightly after a record holiday season.

但周四公布的美国1月份零售销售数据远低于预期，这表明在经历了创纪录的假期后，美国人可能会勒紧裤腰带。

Still, the labor market remains remarkably strong, as evidenced by the nation’s unemployment rate, which has stayed below 4% for 24 straight months.

不过劳动力市场仍然非常强劲，全国失业率已连续24个月低于4%就是证据。

Will there be a US recession in 2024?

2024年美国会出现经济衰退吗？

The US economy could be in a recession right now without Americans knowing it.

美国经济可能现在正处在人们不知道的衰退中。

That’s because the economy isn’t broadly and officially considered to be in a recession until a relatively unknown group of eight economists says so.

这是因为在一个不知名的八位经济学家小组这样说之前，美国经济并没有被广泛正式地认为处于衰退之中。

That group, known as the Business Cycle Dating Committee at the National Bureau of Economic Research, judges the onset of a recession retroactively based upon “a significant decline in economic activity that is spread across the economy and lasts more than a few months.”

该组织被称为国家经济研究局的Business Cycle Dating Committee，是基于“整个经济体持续数月以上的经济活动显著下降”来判断衰退开始的。

There’s no fixed rule about what that involves, but it could include factors like a spike in the unemployment rate, falling income, a major drop in spending or a negative economic growth rate.

这涉及哪些因素不是固定的，可能包括失业率飙升、收入下降、支出大幅下降或经济负增长等因素。

But, importantly, two consecutive negative quarters of GDP don’t always qualify as a recession. The US experienced that in 2022, and the NBER committee didn’t announce a recession.

但重要的是，GDP连续两个季度为负并不一定是衰退。美国在2022年经历了这种情况，NBER委员会没有宣布经济衰退。

That said, the risk of a recession has been elevated since the US Federal Reserve began its tightening cycle in March 2022, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told reporters in December. However, he said, “there’s little basis for thinking that the economy is in a recession now.”

尽管如此，美联储主席Jerome Powell在12月告诉记者，自2022年3月美联储开始紧缩周期以来，经济衰退的风险一直在上升。然而，他说，“现在没有理由认为经济处于衰退之中”。

But even when the economy seems as though it’s never been better, there’s always the possibility of a recession in the next year, Powell added.

不过就算经济非常好的时候，第二年也有可能出现衰退，Powell说道。

That’s because unforeseen economic shocks — like, say, a global pandemic — can arise at any point.

这是因为不可预见的经济冲击——比如全球疫情——随时都可能发生。